AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

9/12/2025: Gold scores 1% weekly win

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.3% to close above $3,649 as soft consumer sentiment and a weakening labor market reinforced expectations for a rate-cut cycle from the Fed. Bullion rose 1% for the week. Silver rallied 1.7% for the session and 3.2% for the week to finish at $42.39 an ounce.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index fell for a second month in September, to the lowest level since May, as many Americans become increasingly worried about inflation and, especially, jobs.

Deep cracks in the job market have appeared in recent months as tumultuous trade policies have stymied the ability of businesses to plan and hire. Revised data show the economy lost jobs in June for the first time in more than four years, and job gains in July and August averaged around 50,000, just barely above stall speed. First-time jobs claims rose last week to the highest level in almost four years.

Data this week showed consumer inflation rose 0.4% in August, the fastest pace in seven months, driven by tariffs and the mass deportation of low-wage workers, causing food prices to jump 0.6%. But wholesale inflation was unexpectedly moderate for the month, leaving the door open for the Fed to reduce interest rates when it meets next week.

Fed fund futures trading is pricing in at least a quarter-point rate cut at 100%, with an 84% likelihood of a second one in October, and a 74% chance of a third quarter-point cut in December.

Lower interest rates weigh on the dollar and Treasury yields, supporting gold and silver by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding them as safe-havens and by making them cheaper in other currencies, boosting demand overseas.

Platinum picked up 0.8% for a weekly rise of 1.4%. Palladium added 0.8% today and a whopping 10.1% this week.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $12.50 to $3,649.40; silver rose 69 cents to $42.39; platinum climbed $11.20 to $1,400.95; and palladium advanced $9.70 to $1,229.30 an ounce.

9/11/2025: Gold holds near record highs

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Holding near record highs, New York spot gold eased 0.2% to close under $3,637 after another round of soft jobs data increased rate-cut expectations, stoking risk appetite despite rising inflation. Silver lost 1.4% to finish at $41.70 an ounce.

First-time jobless claims rose by 27,000 last week to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years. While driven in part by floods in Texas, the upsurge reflects growing weakness in the labor market. Revisions to nonfarm payrolls this week revealed 911,000 fewer jobs were created in the 12 months through March than previously reported.

Meanwhile, the CPI rose 0.4% in August, more than expected, lifting the annual consumer inflation rate to 2.9% from 2.7% in July. The broad-based increase was driven by big jumps in housing and food costs.

Wall Street rallied on expectations that the Fed will lower interest rates to try to heal a limping labor market. The Dow rallied 1.3% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq added 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively.

Fed fund futures are now pricing in a September rate cut at 100%, with expectations of at least one more, may two, before the end of the year.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields and the dollar both slipped fell on the dovish rate outlook.

Platinum slid 0.3% while palladium picked up 2.1%.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $6.70 to $3,636.90; silver shed 56 cents to $41.70; platinum eased $4.50 to $1,389.65; and palladium rose $25.30 to $1,219.60 an ounce.

9/10/2025: Gold nearly flat after soft PPI

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold was nearly flat, adding 30 cents to close near $3,644, after mixed wholesale inflation data pressured Treasury yields and gave the dollar a slight lift. Silver rose 35 cents to finish at $41.23.

The Producer Price Index unexpectedly dipped 0.1% in August after rising 0.7% in July, signaling that wholesale inflation has yet to escalate because of tariffs. The cost of services fell 0.2% as margins in trade services compressed. The cost of goods rose 0.1%.

Economists speculated that firms are eating cost increases rather than passing them on to consumers. This week's release of the Consumer Price Index will give additional clues about the course of inflation.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields retreated to under 4.05% on expectations that the soft PPI will encourage the Fed to lower interest rates next week to support the declining labor market. Falling yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

The dollar added less than 0.1%, capping gold's rising by making it slightly pricier overseas.

Platinum and palladium rose /1.6% and 2.3%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained 30 cents to $3.643.60; silver rose 35 cents to $41.23; platinum picked up $22.50 to $1,395.15; and palladium climbed $26.50 to $1,19430 an ounce.

9/9/2025: Gold edges up on rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold edged up 0.1% to close above $3,643 despite mild rebounds in Treasury yields and the dollar as new evidence of labor market weakness raised expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates this month. It was bullion's sixth record finish so far in September. Silver slipped 1.3% to $40.88 an ounce.

The economy created 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than originally estimated, according to the BLS annual benchmark revision. The downgrade means roughly 76,000 fewer jobs per month were added, cutting the average monthly increase in half for this period.

Every year the BLS refines the monthly nonfarm payrolls totals from the previous April through March by using the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, a far more complete database of employment. The current revision, the biggest since 2009, indicates a far weaker labor market than originally thought.

Fed fund futures traders raised the odds of a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed this month to 92% after the revision, up from 89% before it. This week's release of the PPI and CPI should give further clues about the course of interest rates.

Still, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rebounded slightly from five-month lows, capping gold's rise by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

The dollar added 0.3% against major rivals but hovered near a seven-week low, pressuring gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium slid 0.8% and 0.2%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $5.20 to $3,643.30; silver slid 55 cents to $40.88; platinum slipped $11 to $1,372.65; and palladium dipped $2.80 to $1,136.65 an ounce.

9/8/2025: Gold marches to new record

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Extending its record rally, New York spot gold added another 0.7% to close at a fresh all-time high above $3,638 as Treasury yields and the dollar continued to erode under pressure from a slowing labor market. Silver rose 0.9% to finish at $41.43 an ounce.

Last Friday's nonfarm payrolls report showed a meager 22,000 new jobs were created in August, lifting the unemployment rate to 4.3%, the highest level in more than four years. While July's total was revised higher by 6,000 jobs, June's was revised sharply lower to reveal payrolls declined by 13,000 for the first month of negative job growth since 2020.

Deepening weakness in the labor market has all but guarantees that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates when it meets later this month. The only real question now is whether the initial cut will be 25 or 50 basis points.

Meanwhile, Americans are becoming more worried that they'll be unable to find a new job if they lose their current one. The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations, released today, registered a 44.9% expected probability among consumers that they'd be able to find a new job, the lowest level since June 2013.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell to under 4.1%, close to the lowest level this year, as investors sought the perceived safety of government bonds. Yields have now fallen 70 basis points, from 4.8%, since mid-January. Falling yields lift gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar fell another 0.2%, supporting gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies.

Bullion has now risen 38% this year behind aggressive central bank purchases, global de-dollarization, economic uncertainty because of trade wars, and dovish shifts in interest rate policies.

Platinum picked up 0.1% while palladium jumped 2.5%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $24.90 to $3,638.10; silver added 35 cents, to $41.43; platinum picked up $1,75 to $1,383,65; and palladium advanced $28.15 to $1,139.45 an ounce.

9/5/2025: Gold passes $3,600 an ounce

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rallied 1.3% to close at an all-time high above $3,613 after surprisingly weak employment data supported a dovish rate view, causing the dollar and Treasury yields to plummet. Bullion ended the week 4% higher, gaining nearly $140 an ounce while hitting a series of new record highs. Silver rose 0.4% for the day and 2.2% for the week to finish at $41.07 an ounce.

The BLS reported that the economy added a meager 22,000 jobs in August, far less than the 75,000 forecast, lifting the unemployment rate to 4.3%, the highest level since late 2021.

While July's total was revised upward by 6,000 jobs to 79,000, the total for June was revised lower to show payrolls declined by 13,000, the first net drop in job creation since the pandemic in late 2020.

The fourth consecutive month of employment weakness has been directly attributed to aggressive Trump administration tariff policies, which have eroded sales and paralyzed planning, leaving businesses reticent to hire.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields plunged under 4.1% on flights to safety and expectations that the Fed could consider a half-point rate cut when it meets later this month. Falling yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar lost 0.6% on the increasingly dovish rate view, lifting gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies.

Further undermining yields and the dollar while boosting gold this week, the White House intensified its campaign to influence the Federal Reserve. Criminal charges were filed against beleaguered Fed Governor Lisa Cook, whom Trump wants to replace with a conservative.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent published an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal outlining a radical overhaul of Fed powers, and he launched an unusually public process of interviewing 11 candidates for Powell's replacement.

Economists fear the loss of central bank independence will undermine confidence in US financial instruments, destabilizing global markets.

Platinum picked up 0.05% for a week rise of 0.8%. Palladium fell 1.5% today but rose 0.6% for the week.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $47.40 to $3,613.20; silver added 16 cents, to $41.07; platinum picked up $7.20 to $1,381.95; and palladium shed $17.35 to $1,111.60 an ounce.

9/4/2025: Gold slips on profit-taking

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.8% to close under $3,526 as the dollar rose and traders took profits from bullion's recent record highs despite a new round of weak jobs data. Silver shed 1.5% to finish at $40.91 an ounce.

First-time jobless claims rose to 237,000 last week, the highest level since late June, signaling additional softening of the labor market. Separately, ADP reported private payrolls added merely 54,000, substantially fewer than the 75,000 forecast.

Tomorrow's release of the government Nonfarm Payrolls Report, considered the definitive data on employment, should provide additional clues about the job market—and the Fed's willingness to cut interest rates this fall.

The July NFP showed an anemic 73,000 new jobs added while totals for the prior two months were revised lower by 147,000, prompting President Trump to fire the head of the nonpartisan Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most forecasts expect 75,000 jobs being added in August.

The dollar picked up 0.2% against major rivals as bargain-hunters entered the market ahead of tomorrow's jobs data. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them pricier in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium fell 4.3% and 3.4%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold slid $27.40 to $3,565.80; silver dropped 63 cents to $40.91; platinum retreated $62.50 to $1,374.75; and palladium fell $35.55 to $1,128.95 an ounce.

9/3/2025: Spot gold approaches $3,600

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold surged 1.2% to close above $3,593, another all-time high, as Treasury yields and the dollar retreated after soft jobs data reinforced expectations of monetary easing by the Fed. Bullion has risen more than 6% over the past six sessions, achieving three consecutive record closes. Silver rose another 1.1% to finish at $41.54 an ounce.

Job openings in the US fell in July to the lowest level in nearly a year and the second lowest since the pandemic. Confused by tariff volatility, businesses are essentially frozen in place, neither adding nor laying off employees. The hiring rate stands at the lowest since 2013.

Separately, the Fed's Beige Book reported companies are "reluctant to hire" because of weaker sales resulting from US trade wars.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell to 4.22% as investors anticipate that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates this month to support the labor market. Fed funds futures traders now put the likelihood of a quarter-point cut at 98%.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar lost 0.2% against major rivals. A weaker dollar lifts gold and other commodities by making them cheaper overseas, while falling yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Gold's record-breaking bull market is also underpinned by aggressive central bank buying and diversification away from the dollar because of tumultuous US trade, immigration, and foreign policies.

Platinum and palladium rose 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $43.80 to $3,593.20; silver surged 47 cents to $41.57; platinum picked up $33.40 to $1,437.25; and palladium rose $32.10 to $1,168.50 an ounce.

9/2/2025: Gold jumps to another record

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold jumped another 2.2% to close at a new record high above $3,549 as rate-cut optimism coupled with renewed uncertainty about tariffs to stoke safe-haven demand. Bullion has now risen more than 5% over the past five sessions. Silver rallied 2.2% to finish at $41.07 an ounce.

A divided appeals court ruled over the weekend that most of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are unlawful. The ruling allows tariffs to remain in place until October 14, however, giving the White House time to appeal to the Supreme Court.

The news creates additional uncertainty for businesses that have scrambled for months to plan for changing and unpredictable trade policies.

Meanwhile, the ISM reported that US manufacturing continued to contract in August, falling for the sixth month in a row. Employment in the sector fell again as tariff uncertainty made businesses hesitant to hire.

All three major US equity indexes retreated, with the Dow and S&P 500 losing 0.7% each while the Nasdaq shed 0.8%.

Gold has rallied sharply in recent sessions on growing economic risks and increasing expectations that the Fed will stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates despite signs of rising inflation. Fed funds futures traders put the odds of a quarter-point cut this month at nearly 93%.

This Friday's nonfarm payrolls report should give additional clarity on the rate view.

Platinum and palladium rose 2.3% and 2.8%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $75.70 to $3,549.40; silver climbed 87 cents to $41.07; platinum picked up $32.20 to $1,403.85; and palladium advanced $31.15 to $1,136.40 an ounce.

8/29/2025: Gold rallies to new record high

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rallied 1.2% to close at a new all-time high near $3,474 after moderate inflation data reinforced the outlook for coming rate cuts from the Fed, pressuring the dollar and lifting alternative stores of value. Bullion gained 5.5% for the month, its best since April. Silver surged 2.6% to $40.20 an ounce for whopping 10% rise in August.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index showed inflation rising 0.2% in August, in line with expectations, for an annualized inflation rate of 2.6%. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the so-called core PCE factoring out food and energy, rose 0.3% for 12-month rate of 2.9%.

While the elevated annualized core rate, the highest since February, suggests tariff inflation is beginning to take root, the overall inflation picture is benign enough for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates in September—proved the next payrolls report is not abysmal.

Fed fund futures traders now see an 88% likelihood of a quarter-point reduction later this month, followed by at least one more by December.

The dollar fell 0.2% against major rivals on the dovish rates view, posting a 2% decline for the month. A falling dollar lifts gold and other commodities by making them less expensive overseas.

Platinum picked up 1.1% for the day and 6.6% for the month. Palladium added 0.1% for a monthly loss of 0.7%.

At the New York spot close: gold rallied $41.90 to $3,473.70; silver surged $1.01 to $40.20; platinum picked up $15.25 to $1,371.65; and palladium added 65 cents, to $1,105.25 an ounce.