Jim Wyckoff - Daily Gold Market Updates

Gold and silver prices are weaker in early U.S. trading Tuesday. Precious metals markets bulls are pensive. Looming is the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting that begins this morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Warsh. Most market watchers agree the Fed is likely to lean hawkish on U.S. monetary policy. December gold was last down $27.90 at $4,323.30 and December silver was down $0.413 at $63.73.

As the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins its monetary policy meeting today, the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury note climbed above 5% today, reaching its highest level since July 2007 as the global bond sell off intensifies amid surging energy prices, mounting inflation risks and growing fiscal concerns. Markets are pricing in roughly a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed after the FOMC meeting concludes on Wednesday afternoon, which would mark the first increase since July 2023. Traders will also look for FOMC signals on further monetary tightening as policymakers contend with upward risks to prices.

Crude oil remains above $100 amid Middle East disruptions. Crude oil prices rose again today as traders weigh disruptions to Middle East supplies, with a critical Saudi Arabian pipeline still offline. “Brent advanced above $107 a barrel — climbing toward an intraday peak just below $110 touched on Friday, which was the highest since May. The East-West pipeline — a workaround for Strait of Hormuz flows — was shut last week after attacks, with Saudi Aramco yet to say when it may restart. Riyadh is now trying to raise shipments through the waterway further to compensate,” said a Bloomberg report. The pipeline, which carries oil across the kingdom to the Red Sea coast, will be out of service for several weeks, the Associated Press reported on Monday, citing two regional officials. However, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that he expected it to be back up and running “very soon.” On the diplomatic front, Tehran said that there would be no talks with Washington until its conditions were met, according to Mohsen Rezaee, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in a post on X. That followed comments from President Trump, who flagged potential progress on the war, saying the Islamic Republic “wants to make a deal, quickly and badly,” said Bloomberg.

No let-up in Ukraine, Russia strikes on each other’s infrastructure. Ukraine said it hit the Syzran refinery in Russia’s Volga region overnight as the two nations continued attacks on each other’s critical infrastructure despite President Trump’s claim of an energy truce. “Russia hasn’t stopped striking our energy sector, conventional logistics and critical infrastructure. And our responses to them for this are tangible,” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Telegram on Tuesday and as reported by Bloomberg. He confirmed that nation’s forces hit the Russian oil refinery in Syzran, a drone production facility in Taganrog, a drone preparation and launch site in the Oryol region and targets in the Black Sea. “As a result of the strike, a fire broke out at the site of the Syzran refinery, Ukraine’s General Staff said in a separate statement on Telegram, adding that a primary crude processing unit and the tank farm were hit. Satellite images taken by NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System on Tuesday show a fresh heat anomaly at the refinery site, likely indicating a blaze,” said the report.

Technically, December gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the August high of $4,755.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $4,015.60. First resistance is seen at $4,400.00 and then at $4,450.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4,293.00 and then at $4,250.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

December silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 72.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $55.60. First resistance is seen at $65.00 and then at $68.00. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $62.80 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

Gold and silver prices are lower and hit five-week lows in early U.S. trading Monday. Recently rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar index are squelching the precious metals markets bulls. And also looming is this week’s Federal Reserve FOMC meeting that is likely to lean hawkish on U.S. monetary policy. December gold was last down $73.00 at $4,335.40 and December silver was down $1.793 at $63.39.

Greenback rallies ahead of Fed’s FOMC meeting. The U.S. dollar index is posting strong gains today, gaining for a fourth consecutive session as traders and investors prepare for the upcoming Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting while assessing the impact of surging oil prices. Markets are currently pricing in an 86% probability that the Fed will raise its fed funds policy rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, with another hike expected later this year. Data released Friday showed U.S. consumer inflation held steady at 3.4% in August, matching July’s reading and market expectations, while underlying inflation came in above forecasts as core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month. Higher oil prices added further inflationary pressure after Saudi Arabia shut down the critical East-West pipeline, which provides an alternative route around the Strait of Hormuz. Reads a Bloomberg headline today: “Fed’s Warsh on Collision Course with Trump as Rate Hike Looms.”

“Oil Jumps as Shutdown of Saudi Pipeline Deepens Energy Crisis.” That’s a Bloomberg headline overnight. “Oil prices rose after Saudi Arabia closed a major crude pipeline following attacks, disrupting a key route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. The closure may lead to output cuts if it is prolonged, according to June Goh, senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities SA. A meeting between Iran and several Gulf nations on creating a temporary shipping lane through Hormuz was postponed, amid a rapid military advance by Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen,” said the report. Brent crude oil futures rose as much as 3.7% to above $108 a barrel, before paring gains, while West Texas Intermediate was near $103. Saudi Arabia said late on Friday that it had halted the East-West pipeline as a precaution after attacks the previous day. There’s been no indication of when operations will resume.

Trump says summit meeting with Xi still on. President Trump said he is not worried that Chinese President Xi Jinping will cancel a highly anticipated visit later this month. “No, I’m not worried about that,” Trump told reporters as he attended the Irish Open in Doonbeg, Ireland on Sunday and as reported by Bloomberg. “We have a great relationship. He wants to get along, and we want it. We’re going to get along.” Trump’s comments follow a recent report that China had warned the U.S. that it would scrap Xi’s upcoming visit if the U.S. approved new arms sales to Taiwan, a major point of contention for Beijing. Trump has said he is weighing a $14 billion arms deal with Taiwan, the self-governing democratic island, that China sees as part of its country. Xi has warned Trump in the past that there is a potential for conflict if the issue of Taiwan is mismanaged.

Technically, December gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the August high of $4,755.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $4,015.60. First resistance is seen at $4,400.00 and then at $4,450.00. First support is seen at $4,300.00 and then at $4,250.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

December silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 72.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $55.60. First resistance is seen at $65.00 and then at $68.00. Next support is seen at $62.00 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

Remembering September 11, 2001. Those of us old enough to remember know exactly where we were 25 years ago today when we heard the news of a major terror attack on U.S. soil. If you have not seen the video of the nearly 3,000 synchronized drones forming the twin towers in New York City last night, it’s a must see. May God Bless the United States of America, and especially those who lost friends and loved ones on that fateful day a quarter-century ago.

Gold and silver prices are lower in early U.S. trading Friday. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer U.S. dollar index late this week are bearish “outside-market” elements for the precious metals markets. Also, another key U.S. inflation report looms today. December gold was last down $26.60 at $4,381.00 and December silver was down $0.567 at $64.37.

U.S. consumer price index report out this morning. The annual U.S. consumer inflation rate is expected to have held steady at 3.4% in August, matching the July reading. On a monthly basis, CPI is forecast to rise 0.4%, the strongest increase in three months, following a 0.1% gain in July. Gasoline prices are expected to have climbed nearly 3%, while grocery prices are also projected to rebound. Airfares are likely to remain elevated amid higher fuel costs, while housing costs are expected to continue showing signs of softness. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to rise 0.2%, month-on-month, matching July’s increase, and 2.4%, annually, which would mark the lowest reading since March of 2021, down from 2.5% in July. Overall, inflation is expected to remain well above the Fed’s 2% target. Bond bears have pushed benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields toward the closely watched 5% level ahead of today’s key U.S. inflation data that stands to determine expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike next week. TradingEconomics.com

IEA cuts its forecast for global crude oil demand. The International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for oil demand and said consumption may have to decline further in the coming months as the U.S.-Iran war drags on. The Paris-based agency deepened its estimates for this year’s decline in global oil demand by 940,000 barrels a day, to 2.5 million barrels a day. The return of a supply surplus will now be delayed until 2027, the IEA said. This year’s expected decline in global oil demand is the biggest loss in annual average terms since the 2020 Covid pandemic. The agency said the market is heading for a deeper supply shortfall than previously estimated because the war is having an even bigger impact on the flow of oil than on consumption.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly higher. October Nymex WTI crude oil prices are solidly lower after hitting a three-month high overnight and are trading around $99.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.944%.

Technically, December gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the August high of $4,755.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $4,015.60. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4,488.80 and then at $4,500.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,341.40 and then at last week’s low of $4,329.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

December silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this August high of 72.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at $67.00 and then at this week’s high of $68.98. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $63.51 and then at $62.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0