Jim Wyckoff - Daily Gold Market Updates

Warsh-led Fed begins FOMC meeting today. Today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be the first for new Chairman Kevin Warsh. Fed watchers expect Warsh to not make any waves in his first FOMC meeting. The U.S. central bank is expected to leave U.S. monetary policy unchanged at this meeting, which ends Wednesday afternoon with an FOMC statement and press conference from Warsh. Meantime, the Bank of Japan today raised its benchmark interest rate to 1%. The BOJ said it would keep raising rates in response to developments in the economy and prices. The decision was widely expected, with some predicting the next BOJ rate hike could come as soon as October.

Global central banks still stocking up on gold. More central banks than ever expect to increase their gold reserves, a sign one of the key forces behind bullion’s record-breaking rally remains intact despite this year’s pullback. In a survey of 74 central banks, 45% said they plan to buy in the coming year, the biggest-ever share in data collected by the World Gold Council and YouGov Plc since 2018. Just one said it planned to cut holdings, the WGC said in a report Tuesday and as reported by Bloomberg. “I think the fall in the price is an opportunity for some central banks to start buying in,” said Shaokai Fan, global head of central banks for the WGC, a trade body representing gold miners. The pace of gold buying by central banks sped up in the first quarter, even as Turkey, Russia and Azerbaijan began offloading metal. In the coming year, emerging-market and developing-economy central banks make up most of the prospective buyers, according to the WGC’s survey. About 53% of those respondents said they expect their holdings to increase, compared with 18% of advanced-economy central banks. The Bank of England, in the middle of the world’s biggest bullion hub in London, remains the most popular vaulting location for central banks, used by 57% of respondents.

Latest on U.S.-Iran peace prospects…

--U.S. at odds with allies over how easy it is to reopen Hormuz

--Two Iran-linked tankers sail through Hormuz before deal signing

The White House sought to make the case that its interim deal with Iran will end a global energy crisis and achieve the administration’s wartime goals. World leaders at the G7 meeting in France welcomed the agreement and markets responded positively. However, doubts remained on when it will go into effect — or how exactly it will lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. and Iran have yet to release a text of the memorandum of understanding, and the two sides have diverged on what the agreement will look like, including the potential for tolls on traffic through the strait.

Technically, August gold futures prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4,391.50 and then at $4,400.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,326.70 and then at this week’s low of $4,282.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $75.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $71.40 and then at $73.00. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $68.725 and then at $65.965. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

Latest on U.S.-Iran war, including new peace deal reached…

--U.S., Iran reach peace deal; details thin so far

--Strait of Hormuz set to reopen to shipping

--Pakistan to host U.S.-Iran peace deal event in Geneva

--Nymex crude oil down sharply, near $80/barrel on peace deal

--Global stock markets rally on news of peace deal

--Shipowners seek clarity on Hormuz deal as amid waiting ships

The U.S. and Iran reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, halting their war in the Middle East. Officials from the two countries will meet Friday in Switzerland to formally sign the agreement, with key sticking points left for the next stage of talks, including the removal of sanctions and financial incentives for Iran. The agreement could bring peace and security to the region, but its details remain unresolved, and both sides are casting the deal in different lights, underscoring the difficulties that may lie ahead in resolving outstanding issues. Even as he celebrated the deal, Trump told the New York Times in an interview Sunday that if an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program isn’t reached, he could restart military attacks.

Trump to meet with G-7 leaders in France early this week. President Trump will meet with U.S. partners in the Middle East at the Group of Seven leaders’ summit in France early this week, underscoring the outsized role the war in Iran continues to play as European allies grapple with the global economic fallout. Trump will hold bilateral meetings with the leaders of France, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt as well as India, according to the White House. India and the Middle Eastern countries are not part of the Group of Seven. The U.S. president is expected to focus on economic development and security, supply chain resilience, artificial intelligence, regulatory streamlining and energy abundance, the officials said. The meeting at Évian-les-Bains from June 15 to June 17 comes at a time of growing tensions between the U.S. and many of its largest economic and security partners.

Major central banks likely to keep their rates steady this week. ”For several global central banks, the question of whether the Iran war poses more of an immediate danger to inflation or to growth is likely to remain open in the coming week,” Bloomberg reports. “Officials responsible for monetary policy in seven of the world’s most-traded currency jurisdictions are mostly anticipated to keep settings steady again. A well-flagged rate hike from the Bank of Japan to continue its exit from low borrowing costs and a close call in Norway are likely exceptions, but the U.S. Federal Reserve and its peers from the U.K. to Sweden are widely expected to make no major monetary policy changes. However, “a sense of divergence within the club of advanced economies is already crystallizing after the European Central Bank last week delivered its first interest-rate increase since 2023. Peers in Norway and Australia have already raised rates, although they’re seen likely to feel no urgency to do so again. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank, whose policy is impacted by safe-haven flows into the franc, will probably keep its own rate at zero,” said the Bloomberg report.

Traders remain bullish the greenback. Traders turned the most optimistic on the U.S. dollar in more than a year as the war in the Middle East supports the currency’s status as a haven.

Hedge funds, asset managers and other speculators accumulated $27.8 billion worth of bets that the dollar will strengthen as of June 9. Speculative traders have been holding bets on a stronger US currency for the past 13 weeks, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) weekly commitments of traders data, released Friday. That marks a shift from before the war when traders had about $22 billion of wagers tied to a weaker greenback. “The fundamental picture continues to point in the bullish direction for the dollar,” said Alex Cohen, a foreign-exchange strategist at Bank of America Corp and as reported by Bloomberg.

CFTC may nix CME’s 24-hour crude oil futures trading. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is considering whether to block CME Group Inc.’s bid to launch a round-the-clock oil contract, heightening tensions between the market stalwart and its regulator, Bloomberg reported. CME Group Inc. announced last Thursday that it would debut 24-hour, seven-days-a-week trading in some crude and gold futures contracts. The news caught the U.S.

Latest on U.S.-Iran war…

-- Trump says Iran deal is close after scrapping new military strikes

-- U.S.-Iran deal slowed by web of go-betweens facilitating peace talks

-- Oil and gas prices extend slides on optimism over U.S.-Iran peace deal

-- Benchmark Brent crude oil falls to over 3-month low on peace prospects

President Trump pulled back threatened military strikes against Iran in a stark reversal that came just hours after he vowed to hit the Islamic Republic “VERY HARD” and threatened to seize its oil infrastructure. Trump announced on social media the attacks were off, claiming again that a deal was close — without any confirmation from Iran, and described it as “a very strong memorandum of understanding that is a little conceptual,” which would restart shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s semi-official news agency Fars said earlier Thursday that officials had not yet approved the text of any agreement with the U.S., citing an unnamed source, and talks remain stuck over several key issues, including the release of frozen Iranian funds and Iran’s demand for a ceasefire in Lebanon.

Blockbuster SpaceX stock IPO expected today… Shadow markets are pricing a SpaceX stock debut with a potential pop of at least 35%. Derivatives and perpetual futures markets are implying a market value of over $2.3 trillion, with prediction markets giving 70% odds of SpaceX stock closing above $2 trillion in total value on its first day. The pricing indicates strong investor appetite for assets at the intersection of AI and space infrastructure, which could bode well for upcoming initial public offerings and set a precedent for future mega-IPOs.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are lower, hit a seven-week low and are trading around $84.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.47%.

Technically, August gold futures prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,267.80 and then at $4,300.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,191.10 and then at $4,150.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $75.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $69.18 and then at $70.00. Next support is seen at $65.00 and then at $63.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

Gold and silver prices are lower in early U.S. trading Wednesday, with gold sharply down as both metals hit 10-week lows overnight. Technical selling is featured as gold and silver markets are trapped in price downtrends on the daily bar charts. Worries about higher global interest rates and the resulting higher bond yields are also keeping the gold and silver buyers very tentative at present. August gold was last down $99.10 at $4,188.00. July silver prices were last down $0.935 at $64.32.

Key U.S. inflation report on deck this morning. The annual inflation rate in the U.S. is expected to rise to 4.2% in May, marking its highest level since April 2023, from 3.8% in April. This would represent the third consecutive monthly acceleration in headline U.S. inflation, driven largely by higher gasoline prices following the energy shock triggered by the conflict with Iran. However, the broader pass-through to consumer prices is expected to remain relatively limited. On a monthly basis, consumer prices are projected to increase by 0.5% in May, following a 0.6% rise in April. Gasoline prices likely went up around 9%, but the fading impact of a one-off adjustment to rent data should have a moderating effect on inflation. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to edge up to 2.9% year-on-year, a fresh-high since September 2025, from 2.8% in April. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices are estimated to have risen by 0.3%, after increasing 0.4% in the previous month. TradingEconomics.com

Latest on U.S.-Iran war…

-- U.S., Iran attack each other over Apache downed near Hormuz Strait

The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes overnight after President Trump retaliated against Tehran for shooting down an American Apache helicopter. The U.S. military said it had completed an operation that saw fighter jets strike Iranian air defenses, ground control stations and radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran launched missiles on four American targets and fired drones at the U.S.'s main naval base in the Middle East, with no immediate reports of casualties in any of the attacks. The skirmishes further jolted a two-month-old truce and exposed the fragility of talks between the warring sides aimed at securing peace in the Middle East.

Global shipping price rates declining… A key measure of bulk shipping rates saw prices dropping for an eighth consecutive day as demand in the larger-vessel segments cooled. The Baltic Dry Index fell 3.4% to 2,818 points on Tuesday, marking its longest losing streak since mid-January. The fall in the Capesize market coincides with a rise in the number of ballasters, or vessels sailing without cargo, which can signal weakening demand relative to vessel supply. “It’s attributed to the recent loss of momentum in the Capesize segment, but we should note that it has still delivered the strongest first half of the year in the past three years,” said Maria Bertzeletou, a senior market analyst at Signal Group and as reported by Bloomberg. “The index has been on a tear this year, supported by strong demand and volatility linked to the conflict in the Middle East. The Capesize segment accounts for about 40% of the Baltic Dry Index and is the vessel class most exposed to iron ore, a key steelmaking ingredient,” said the report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are up and trading around $89.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.53%.

Technically, August gold futures prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the March low of $4,162.60. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,281.10 and then at $4,300.00. First support is seen at $4,162.60 and then at $4,100.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $75.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of $61.66. First resistance is seen at $66.00 and then at $58.00. Next support is seen at $63.00 and then at $61.66. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

Today’s U.S. producer price index seen running hot. U.S. producer prices likely increased by 0.7% month-over-month in May, following a 1.4% surge in April, which was the largest monthly gain since March 2022. Energy prices are expected to remain a major driver of inflation, particularly gasoline and jet fuel. Core producer prices, which exclude the more volatile food and energy components, are forecast to rise by 0.5% in May, moderating from the 1% increase recorded in April. On an annual basis, however, headline producer inflation is projected to accelerate for a fourth consecutive month to 6.4%, up from 6% in April and marking its highest level since December 2022. Meanwhile, annual core producer inflation is expected to edge up to 5.4% annually, from 5.2%, also reaching its highest reading since December of 2022. The PPI report follows Wednesday’s consumer price index report for May that also ran hot.

Latest on U.S.-Iran war…

--U.S. steps up strikes against Iran

-- Ship traffic thins in Persian Gulf as U.S.-Iran tensions intensify

-- Trump vows more strikes on Iran today if it holds out on deal

The U.S. launched strikes against multiple targets in Iran for the second straight day after President Trump accused that country of dragging out talks on an interim peace deal. U.S. Central Command said it had begun "additional self-defense strikes" at 5:15 p.m. New York time on Wednesday, targeting surveillance systems, air defense sites and communications networks. Trump said in a Fox News interview that he had spoken with top Iranian officials Wednesday and they had asked him to halt the bombing, but he added the U.S. would hit Iran again if its leaders didn’t sign an agreement. At the same time, a growing number of oil tankers are moving through Hormuz, boosting the flow from a trickle to a stream. President Trump said on Wednesday that more than 100 million barrels have now crossed the waterway since a secret U.S. mission began supporting maritime trade in the region. Those offsets have helped bring oil prices down by more than a quarter since the war began, even though a lasting peace deal has remained elusive.

European Central Bank set to raise interest rates. The European Central Bank today is set to raise its interest rates for the first time since 2023 due to the upswing in inflation caused by the Iran war and spiking energy prices. Economists expect the deposit rate to be lifted by a quarter point to 2.25%, with new quarterly forecasts likely to suggest inflation will quicken further. Today’s ECB's decision must balance the need to address rising inflation with the risk of sparking a recession, as economic expansion is already sagging.

An Asian currency contagion? Asian central banks are increasingly facing currency pressures originating outside their borders, Bloomberg reported today. “From South Korea to India and the Philippines, policymakers have ramped up efforts to curb offshore forex speculation as high oil prices, foreign fund exodus and a strong dollar pressure regional currencies.” South Korea’s finance ministry said on Sunday it will step up oversight of offshore currency derivatives. The Philippines has asked banks to ensure non-deliverable forward contracts are limited to economic purposes, while India has tightened limits on banks’ net open position to $100 million. Indonesia, which unexpectedly raised interest rates on Tuesday, has said its central bank is active in currency markets “around the world, around the clock” to support the rupiah. “The warnings underscore concerns among Asian policymakers that offshore trading is adding to pressure on currencies. The oil-price shock from the U.S.-Iran conflict has worsened the problem, hitting the region’s energy-importing nations.

Technically, August gold futures are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at $4,150.00 and then at $4,200.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,046.20 and then at $4,000.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $75.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at $65.00 and the

Gold and silver futures prices are sharply up in early U.S. trading Friday, with short covering and perceived bargain hunting featured after prices hit seven-month lows on Thursday. Some better optimism on a U.S.-Iran peace deal is also working in favor of the gold and silver market bulls on this day, as metals traders reckon and end to the Middle East war would improve global demand prospects for metals. August gold was last up $122.30 at $4,236.30. July silver prices were last up $3.254 at $67.24.

Latest on U.S.-Iran war…

--Trump says Iran deal is close after scrapping new military strikes

--U.S.-Iran deal slowed by web of go-betweens facilitating peace talks

-- Oil and gas prices extend slides on optimism over U.S.-Iran peace deal

-- Benchmark Brent crude oil falls to over 3-month low on peace prospects

President Trump pulled back threatened military strikes against Iran in a stark reversal that came just hours after he vowed to hit the Islamic Republic “VERY HARD” and threatened to seize its oil infrastructure. Trump announced on social media the attacks were off, claiming again that a deal was close — without any confirmation from Iran, and described it as “a very strong memorandum of understanding that is a little conceptual,” which would restart shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s semi-official news agency Fars said earlier Thursday that officials had not yet approved the text of any agreement with the U.S., citing an unnamed source, and talks remain stuck over several key issues, including the release of frozen Iranian funds and Iran’s demand for a ceasefire in Lebanon.

Blockbuster SpaceX stock IPO expected today… Shadow markets are pricing a SpaceX stock debut with a potential pop of at least 35%. Derivatives and perpetual futures markets are implying a market value of over $2.3 trillion, with prediction markets giving 70% odds of SpaceX stock closing above $2 trillion in total value on its first day. The pricing indicates strong investor appetite for assets at the intersection of AI and space infrastructure, which could bode well for upcoming initial public offerings and set a precedent for future mega-IPOs.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are lower, hit a seven-week low and are trading around $84.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.47%.

Technically, August gold futures prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,267.80 and then at $4,300.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,191.10 and then at $4,150.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $75.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $69.18 and then at $70.00. Next support is seen at $65.00 and then at $63.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

Today’s U.S. producer price index seen running hot. U.S. producer prices likely increased by 0.7% month-over-month in May, following a 1.4% surge in April, which was the largest monthly gain since March 2022. Energy prices are expected to remain a major driver of inflation, particularly gasoline and jet fuel. Core producer prices, which exclude the more volatile food and energy components, are forecast to rise by 0.5% in May, moderating from the 1% increase recorded in April. On an annual basis, however, headline producer inflation is projected to accelerate for a fourth consecutive month to 6.4%, up from 6% in April and marking its highest level since December 2022. Meanwhile, annual core producer inflation is expected to edge up to 5.4% annually, from 5.2%, also reaching its highest reading since December of 2022. The PPI report follows Wednesday’s consumer price index report for May that also ran hot.

Latest on U.S.-Iran war…

--U.S. steps up strikes against Iran

-- Ship traffic thins in Persian Gulf as U.S.-Iran tensions intensify

-- Trump vows more strikes on Iran today if it holds out on deal

The U.S. launched strikes against multiple targets in Iran for the second straight day after President Trump accused that country of dragging out talks on an interim peace deal. U.S. Central Command said it had begun "additional self-defense strikes" at 5:15 p.m. New York time on Wednesday, targeting surveillance systems, air defense sites and communications networks. Trump said in a Fox News interview that he had spoken with top Iranian officials Wednesday and they had asked him to halt the bombing, but he added the U.S. would hit Iran again if its leaders didn’t sign an agreement. At the same time, a growing number of oil tankers are moving through Hormuz, boosting the flow from a trickle to a stream. President Trump said on Wednesday that more than 100 million barrels have now crossed the waterway since a secret U.S. mission began supporting maritime trade in the region. Those offsets have helped bring oil prices down by more than a quarter since the war began, even though a lasting peace deal has remained elusive.

European Central Bank set to raise interest rates. The European Central Bank today is set to raise its interest rates for the first time since 2023 due to the upswing in inflation caused by the Iran war and spiking energy prices. Economists expect the deposit rate to be lifted by a quarter point to 2.25%, with new quarterly forecasts likely to suggest inflation will quicken further. Today’s ECB's decision must balance the need to address rising inflation with the risk of sparking a recession, as economic expansion is already sagging.

An Asian currency contagion? Asian central banks are increasingly facing currency pressures originating outside their borders, Bloomberg reported today. “From South Korea to India and the Philippines, policymakers have ramped up efforts to curb offshore forex speculation as high oil prices, foreign fund exodus and a strong dollar pressure regional currencies.” South Korea’s finance ministry said on Sunday it will step up oversight of offshore currency derivatives. The Philippines has asked banks to ensure non-deliverable forward contracts are limited to economic purposes, while India has tightened limits on banks’ net open position to $100 million. Indonesia, which unexpectedly raised interest rates on Tuesday, has said its central bank is active in currency markets “around the world, around the clock” to support the rupiah. “The warnings underscore concerns among Asian policymakers that offshore trading is adding to pressure on currencies. The oil-price shock from the U.S.-Iran conflict has worsened the problem, hitting the region’s energy-importing nations.

Technically, August gold futures are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at $4,150.00 and then at $4,200.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,046.20 and then at $4,000.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $75.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at $65.00 and then