Jim Wyckoff - Daily Gold Market Updates

Gold and silver prices are higher near midday Tuesday but down from overnight highs. The two precious metals are seeing modest support from some perceived bargain-hunting from the shorter-term futures traders. A slightly weaker U.S. dollar index and a dip in U.S. Treasury yields today are also positives for the precious metals markets. August gold was last up $27.50 at $4,533.30. July silver prices were up $0.921 at $76.20.

U.S. economic data today saw bob openings increase by 731,000 to 7.618 million in April, the highest since November of 2024 and well above market expectations of 6.88 million. This highlights U.S. labor market resilience despite rising energy costs from the Iran conflict. The report falls into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy hawks, who want to see higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve. The data was also a bit negative for gold and silver markets.

Commodity markets in “super-bull” cycle: HSBC. Commodities are in a “super-squeeze” that will worsen if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, according to HSBC Holdings Plc and as reported by Bloomberg. “The longer the strait is closed, the more inventories are run down, the more likely it is that we reach ‘tipping points’ in the markets for some commodities,” analysts said in a report. Raw materials hit a record in mid-May, before paring gains as the U.S. stepped up efforts to extend a truce in its war with Iran. Beyond the Middle East, HSBC’s broad outlook also highlighted other bullish factors for commodities, including rising consumption for base metals and a looming El Niño weather event that may hurt crop supplies. The overall commodities cycle remains in a so-called super-bull phase, but “this is very different to earlier ‘super-cycles’, because it is driven by supply disruptions,” the analysts said. “Rather than a ‘super-cycle’, we have been calling it a ‘super-squeeze’,” they said.

The other key outside markets today see Nymex WTI crude oil prices near steady and trading around $92.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently around 4.35%.

Technically, August gold futures prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the May high of $4,819.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,250.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4,577.30 and then at $4,600.00. First support is seen at $4,500.00 and then at this week’s low of $4,476.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $90.105. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $70.00. First resistance is seen at $77.50 and then at last week’s high of $79.25. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $73.505 and then at the May low of $72.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

Gold and silver prices are posting decent gains in early U.S. trading Tuesday, supported by some perceived bargain-basement buying from the shorter-term futures traders, following recent selling pressure. A weaker U.S. dollar index and a dip in U.S. Treasury yields today are also price-friendly for the precious metals markets. August gold was last up $52.50 at $4,559.00. July silver prices were up $1.361 at $76.60.

Commodity markets in “super-bull” cycle: HSBC. Commodities are in a “super-squeeze” that will worsen if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut, according to HSBC Holdings Plc and as reported by Bloomberg. “The longer the strait is closed, the more inventories are run down, the more likely it is that we reach ‘tipping points’ in the markets for some commodities,” analysts said in a report. Raw materials hit a record in mid-May, before paring gains as the U.S. stepped up efforts to extend a truce in its war with Iran. Beyond the Middle East, HSBC’s broad outlook also highlighted other bullish factors for commodities, including rising consumption for base metals and a looming El Niño weather event that may hurt crop supplies. The overall commodities cycle remains in a so-called super-bull phase, but “this is very different to earlier ‘super-cycles’, because it is driven by supply disruptions,” the analysts said. “Rather than a ‘super-cycle’, we have been calling it a ‘super-squeeze’,” they said.

Latest on U.S.-Iran war…

--Trump aims to calm Lebanon tensions to keep peace talks alive

-- Analysts tell OPEC+ Hormuz disruption to last through year end

President Trump says he thinks the U.S. can reach an interim peace deal with Iran soon, with discussions continuing "at a rapid pace." Iran's negotiators are discussing their "final text" to send to the U.S., but are wary of the U.S. due to previous breached pledges. A ceasefire in Lebanon is a key part of the potential memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, with Iran insisting on a stop to fighting as part of the deal.

Euro zone inflation above 3% annually. Euro zone inflation topped 3% for the first time in more than 2 1/2 years, cementing expectations for an interest-rate hike when the European Central Bank meets next week. Consumer prices rose 3.2% from a year ago in May, up from 3% the previous month, Eurostat said Tuesday. That’s in line with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, quickened more than anticipated to 2.5%, while the closely watched services gauge jumped to 3.5%.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are lower and trading around $91.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.437%.

Technically, August gold futures prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the May high of $4,819.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,250.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4,577.30 and then at $4,600.00. First support is seen at $4,500.00 and then at this week’s low of $4,476.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $90.105. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $70.00. First resistance is seen at $77.50 and then at last week’s high of $79.25. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $73.505 and then at the May low of $72.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0