Jim Wyckoff - Daily Gold Market Updates

Gold and silver prices are lower near midday Wednesday. The two metals are seeing some selling pressure from a higher U.S. dollar index and rising U.S. Treasury yields. The precious metals bulls are getting no traction from a rally in crude oil prices. Technical selling is also featured in gold as prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. August gold was last down $34.90 at $4,485.00. July silver prices were down $1.386 at $74.165.

In today’s economic news, the ADP jobs report showed U.S. private businesses added a net 122,000 jobs in May, a new high since January 2025, compared to a downwardly revised 105,000 in April and above forecasts of 117,000. "Hiring was more broad-based in May than we've seen in the last few years. The labor market continues to show sustained momentum going into the summer hiring season", according to Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist at ADP. The report had no significant impact on markets.

Today was the start of “jobs week” for the U.S. marketplace, with a slate of indicators on the labor market culminating on Friday with the government’s official report on employment for May, issued by the Labor Department. The median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists see the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3% in May, while payrolls are expected to rise by 89,000 jobs.

OECD warns of global recession, rising inflation… The Paris-based OECD think tank says the conflict in the Middle East could trigger world economic recessions and significantly stronger inflation, with price pressures and weakened demand set to be felt for some time. Should disruptions persist into 2027, global growth would slip to 1.8%, tipping some economies into or close to recession and driving up unemployment, the OECD said.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are higher and trading around $95.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.483%.

Technically, August gold prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the May high of $4,819.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,250.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,525.10 and then at this week’s high of $4,577.30. First support is seen at $4,450.00 and then at the May low of $4,395.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $90.105. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $70.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $77.355 and then at last week’s high of $79.25. Next support is seen at $73.00 and then at the May low of $72.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

Gold and silver prices are moderately lower in early U.S. trading Wednesday and seeing some pressure from a firmer U.S. dollar index and rising U.S. Treasury yields at mid-week. The precious metals bulls are getting no traction from a rally in crude oil prices today. August gold was last down $26.80 at $4,492.00. July silver prices were down $0.846 at $74.74.

In overnight news, India’s central bank said a report that it’s selling gold is “not correct,” pointing to data showing its physical stock of gold has remained unchanged. Latest figures in the Reserve Bank of India’s Monthly Bulletin show the stock of physical gold was steady at 880.52 metric tons during April. The stock was at that level “as on date,” the central bank said in a statement Wednesday. Separately, the Press Information Bureau said in a post on X that the share of gold in India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to 16.7% by March 31 from about 14% at the end of September. Bloomberg Economics estimated in a report Tuesday that the central bank likely sold gold reserves worth about $12 billion in the two weeks through May 22, while buying $7.5 billion of foreign-currency assets.

Latest on U.S.-Iran war. U.S. forces intercepted Iranian ballistic missiles and drones aimed at neighboring Middle East countries and struck a command center in Iran in response. The exchange followed days of Israeli military escalation against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, prompting a phone call between President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that was reportedly intense. Tensions remain high after the U.S. attacked Iranian radar and command-and-control sites, with Iran trying to target an air base in retaliation and the U.S. and Israel having different ideas about what an end to the war should look like. “The U.S. president also faces the challenge of convincing observers — including oil-market traders — that he can break the conflict’s recurring cycle of escalation and diplomacy,” Bloomberg reported.

U.S. ADP jobs data out today. The U.S. economic data point of the day Wednesday is the ADP jobs report for May, which is seen coming in at up 110,000 jobs in the month. The April ADP report showed a rise of 109,000 jobs. Today is the start of “jobs week” for the U.S. marketplace, with a slate of indicators on the labor market culminating on Friday with the government’s official report on employment for May, issued by the Labor Department. The median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists see the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3% in May, while payrolls are expected to rise by 89,000 jobs.

OECD warns of global recession, rising inflation… The Paris-based OECD think tank says the conflict in the Middle East could trigger world economic recessions and significantly stronger inflation, with price pressures and weakened demand set to be felt for some time. The organization presented a scenario of prolonged confrontation and economic fallout that would trigger the deepest global slowdown for 40 years, outside of the Covid pandemic and the 2009 financial crisis. Should disruptions persist into 2027, global growth would slip to 1.8%, tipping some economies into or close to recession, driving up unemployment, weakening investment — including in artificial intelligence — and increasing the risk of repricing on financial markets, the OECD said.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are solidly higher and trading around $96.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.483%.

Technically, August gold prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the May high of $4,819.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,250.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,525.10 and then at this week’s high of $4,577.30. First support is seen at $4,450.00 and then at the May low of $4,395.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $90.105. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $70.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $77.355 and then at last week’s high of $79.25. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $73.505 and then at the May low of $72.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0