Jim Wyckoff - Daily Gold Market Updates

Gold and silver prices are sharply lower and hit nine-week lows Friday, in the wake of a surprisingly strong U.S. monthly jobs report that fell squarely into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy hawks, who want to see higher interest rates. A rally in the U.S. dollar index, a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and lower crude oil prices also worked to sink the metals markets to end the trading week. Gold and silver markets both headed for technically bearish weekly low closes today, which would suggest follow-through selling pressure early next week. August gold was last down $114.10 at $4,391.00. July silver prices were last down $4.436 at $69.57.

Surprisingly, the U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May, well above market forecasts for a rise of 85,000 and following an upwardly revised 179,000 gain in the April jobs report. This continues to point to a resilient U.S. labor market. In addition, upward revisions to the March figures added to the strength of the report, with employment levels in March and April now estimated to be 93,000 higher than previously reported. This prompted traders and investors to increase bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, with markets now pricing in a quarter-point increase by year-end. That’s a bearish scenario for gold and silver markets—suggesting more U.S. dollar strength and rising Treasury yields.

S&P 500 weekly winning streak likely to end. The S&P 500 this week will likely break a historic weekly run of gains as the artificial-intelligence trade takes another leg lower. The slide today means the benchmark misses out on a 10th week of gains, which would be the longest such streak since 1985.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar posting good gains, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are lower and trading around $91.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.538%.

Technically, August gold futures prices are trending down on the daily bar chart and the bears gained more power today. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,627.10. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,250.00. First resistance is seen at $4,450.00 and then at $4,500.00. First support is seen at $4,350.00 and then at $4,300.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July silver futures are also trending down. Bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $80.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of $61.66. First resistance is seen at $72.00 and then at today’s high of $74.38. Next support is seen at $68.00 and then at $67.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

Gold prices are a bit weaker and silver prices solidly down in early U.S. trading Friday—just ahead of what is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month: the Labor Department’s Employment Situation Report for May. August gold was last down $15.10 at $4,490.30. July silver prices hit a five-week low overnight and were last down $1.146 at $72.835.

It’s Jobs, Jobs, Jobs Friday! This morning’s monthly employment situation report from the Labor Department is expected to show the U.S. economy added 85,000 non-farm payroll jobs in May, marking a modest slowdown after two consecutive months of non-farm payroll job gains exceeding 100,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, accelerating slightly from April’s 0.2% increase. On an annual basis, however, wage growth is expected to ease to 3.4% from 3.6%. The May report is expected to continue to reflect a resilient labor market, with the prevailing low-hire, low-fire dynamic remaining firmly in place. However, some analysts suggest that this dynamic may be evolving amid structural shifts in the economy, including rising adoption of AI and other emerging pressures.

Latest on U.S.-Iran war.

-- U.S. and Iran show little progress in talks, after week of clashes

The U.S. and Iran have made little progress in talks over an interim peace deal, with clashes continuing in Lebanon. Iran insists on a ceasefire in Lebanon before accepting a deal with the U.S. to extend their truce and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said negotiations are in the “final” stages, while Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said there had been “no tangible progress” in the talks. Skirmishes continued overnight between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon. However, Hezbollah’s attacks on northern Israel have eased, while Israel has held off striking Beirut after threatening to do so earlier this week.

S&P 500 weekly winning streak on the line. The S&P 500 this week may break a historic weekly run of gains as the artificial-intelligence trade takes another leg lower, with investors also expecting U.S. payrolls data to affirm that interest rates will stay higher for longer. Contracts for the index dipped 0.5% overnight after a flat performance for the week so far. A slide today would mean that the benchmark misses out on a 10th week of gains, which would be the longest such streak since 1985. Nasdaq 100 futures fell a further 1% overnight, following Thursday’s rotation out of chipmakers. Stocks are pulling back after Broadcom Inc.’s outlook for chip sales fell short of high expectations, raising questions over whether the rally in the AI trade had run too hard,” said a Bloomberg report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are slightly weaker and trading around $93.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.47%.

Technically, August gold futures prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the May high of $4,819.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,250.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $4,543.20 and then at this week’s high of $4,577.30. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4,450.10 and then at the May low of $4,395.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $90.105. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $70.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $74.38 and then at this week’s high of $77.355. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $71.44 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

Gold prices are a bit weaker and silver prices solidly down in early U.S. trading Friday—just ahead of what is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month: the Labor Department’s Employment Situation Report for May. August gold was last down $15.10 at $4,490.30. July silver prices hit a five-week low overnight and were last down $1.146 at $72.835.

It’s Jobs, Jobs, Jobs Friday! This morning’s monthly employment situation report from the Labor Department is expected to show the U.S. economy added 85,000 non-farm payroll jobs in May, marking a modest slowdown after two consecutive months of non-farm payroll job gains exceeding 100,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, accelerating slightly from April’s 0.2% increase. On an annual basis, however, wage growth is expected to ease to 3.4% from 3.6%. The May report is expected to continue to reflect a resilient labor market, with the prevailing low-hire, low-fire dynamic remaining firmly in place. However, some analysts suggest that this dynamic may be evolving amid structural shifts in the economy, including rising adoption of AI and other emerging pressures.

Latest on U.S.-Iran war.

 -- U.S. and Iran show little progress in talks, after week of clashe

The U.S. and Iran have made little progress in talks over an interim peace deal, with clashes continuing in Lebanon. Iran insists on a ceasefire in Lebanon before accepting a deal with the U.S. to extend their truce and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump said negotiations are in the “final” stages, while Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said there had been “no tangible progress” in the talks. Skirmishes continued overnight between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon. However, Hezbollah’s attacks on northern Israel have eased, while Israel has held off striking Beirut after threatening to do so earlier this week.

 S&P 500 weekly winning streak on the line. The S&P 500 this week may break a historic weekly run of gains as the artificial-intelligence trade takes another leg lower, with investors also expecting U.S. payrolls data to affirm that interest rates will stay higher for longer. Contracts for the index dipped 0.5% overnight after a flat performance for the week so far. A slide today would mean that the benchmark misses out on a 10th week of gains, which would be the longest such streak since 1985. Nasdaq 100 futures fell a further 1% overnight, following Thursday’s rotation out of chipmakers. Stocks are pulling back after Broadcom Inc.’s outlook for chip sales fell short of high expectations, raising questions over whether the rally in the AI trade had run too hard,” said a Bloomberg report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are slightly weaker and trading around $93.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.47%.

 

Technically, August gold futures prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the May high of $4,819.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,250.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $4,543.20 and then at this week’s high of $4,577.30. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4,450.10 and then at the May low of $4,395.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $90.105. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $70.00. First resistance is seen at