Major central banks are likely to keep their rates steady this week. Central bank officials in seven of the world’s most-traded currencies are mostly anticipated to keep their monetary policies steady. A well-flagged rate hike from the Bank of Japan to continue its exit from low borrowing costs and a close call in Norway are likely exceptions. However, the U.S. Federal Reserve and its peers from the U.K. to Sweden are widely expected to make no major monetary policy changes. However, “a sense of divergence within the club of advanced economies is already crystallizing after the European Central Bank last week delivered its first interest-rate increase since 2023. Peers in Norway and Australia have already raised rates, although they’re seen likely to feel no urgency to do so again. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank, whose policy is impacted by safe-haven flows into the franc, will probably keep its own rate at zero,” said a Bloomberg report.
Meantime, the U.S. and Iran reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, halting their war in the Middle East. Officials from the two countries will meet Friday in Switzerland to formally sign the agreement, with key sticking points left for the next stage of talks, including the removal of sanctions and financial incentives for Iran. The agreement could bring peace and security to the region, but its details remain unresolved, and both sides are casting the deal in different lights, underscoring the difficulties that may lie ahead in resolving outstanding issues. Even as he celebrated the deal, Trump told the New York Times in an interview Sunday that if an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program isn’t reached, he could restart military attacks.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly lower, while Nymex WTI crude oil prices are sharply down, hit a two-month low and are trading around $80.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.45%.
August gold prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at $4,400.00 and then at $4,450.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,283.40 and then at $4,250.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0
July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $75.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at $72.50 and then at $75.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $68.725 and then at Friday’s low of $65.965. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0
