Jim Wyckoff - Daily Gold Market Updates

Warsh-led Fed begins FOMC meeting today. Today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be the first for new Chairman Kevin Warsh. Fed watchers expect Warsh to not make any waves in his first FOMC meeting. The U.S. central bank is expected to leave U.S. monetary policy unchanged at this meeting, which ends Wednesday afternoon with an FOMC statement and press conference from Warsh. Meantime, the Bank of Japan today raised its benchmark interest rate to 1%. The BOJ said it would keep raising rates in response to developments in the economy and prices. The decision was widely expected, with some predicting the next BOJ rate hike could come as soon as October.

Global central banks still stocking up on gold. More central banks than ever expect to increase their gold reserves, a sign one of the key forces behind bullion’s record-breaking rally remains intact despite this year’s pullback. In a survey of 74 central banks, 45% said they plan to buy in the coming year, the biggest-ever share in data collected by the World Gold Council and YouGov Plc since 2018. Just one said it planned to cut holdings, the WGC said in a report Tuesday and as reported by Bloomberg. “I think the fall in the price is an opportunity for some central banks to start buying in,” said Shaokai Fan, global head of central banks for the WGC, a trade body representing gold miners. The pace of gold buying by central banks sped up in the first quarter, even as Turkey, Russia and Azerbaijan began offloading metal. In the coming year, emerging-market and developing-economy central banks make up most of the prospective buyers, according to the WGC’s survey. About 53% of those respondents said they expect their holdings to increase, compared with 18% of advanced-economy central banks. The Bank of England, in the middle of the world’s biggest bullion hub in London, remains the most popular vaulting location for central banks, used by 57% of respondents.

Latest on U.S.-Iran peace prospects…

--U.S. at odds with allies over how easy it is to reopen Hormuz

--Two Iran-linked tankers sail through Hormuz before deal signing

The White House sought to make the case that its interim deal with Iran will end a global energy crisis and achieve the administration’s wartime goals. World leaders at the G7 meeting in France welcomed the agreement and markets responded positively. However, doubts remained on when it will go into effect — or how exactly it will lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. and Iran have yet to release a text of the memorandum of understanding, and the two sides have diverged on what the agreement will look like, including the potential for tolls on traffic through the strait.

Technically, August gold futures prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,500.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4,391.50 and then at $4,400.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,326.70 and then at this week’s low of $4,282.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

July silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $75.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $71.40 and then at $73.00. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $68.725 and then at $65.965. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0